Even though sports betting is always speculative, you should let chance play as little of a role as possible in your bets. We will show you how to do this and what you should pay attention to when placing your bets.
Analyze betting info before betting
Various statistics can give you an idea of the outcome of a game and should be the basis of your research before placing a bet. The most important indicator is of course the table. It not only shows how successful the teams or athletes have been in the previous season, but also gives you a lot of additional information, for example who scored how many goals or how often they drew. Tables can often be divided into a home and away table. Many a club seems different in the role of guest and only scores in front of a home crowd.
You should also look at cross-season stats. This is particularly helpful if there have already been many clashes between two opponents in the past. Sometimes teams have a real nemesis that regularly causes them to stumble. All these aspects allow the betting providers to factor into their odds. That’s why you should deal with the statistics in the same disciplined manner in advance. Here are tips for more self-discipline.
Important betting info:
- Table (including all data such as goal difference or home and away strength)
- Market values of the teams
- Direct comparison from past games
Pay attention to the general conditions
Statistics may give you a basic idea of the balance of power between two teams or athletes. But beyond that, numerous other framework conditions determine victory and defeat. Sometimes a change of coach brings a breath of fresh air to a team, sometimes the loss of a key player weighs heavily. Even the weather can favor a particular team’s playing style. The surface of the court is very important in tennis. Listing all the factors would go beyond the scope and after all you need both experience and a certain sense of cause and effect in the respective sport.
Important influencing factors:
- shape curve
- Injuries such as muscle hardening
- exposure of players
- Mood in the team (Is there unrest, rumors of change or a change of coach?)
- Expectations (Is a team under particular pressure? How has it dealt with it in the past?)
- weather
Money management
No matter what goals you have when betting, you should definitely plan a fixed budget for sports betting. How much money you want to put into your hands is up to you. However, never bet money that you otherwise need to live on. Here are some money-saving tips. In addition, as a beginner, you should bet with fixed stakes that do not exceed one to two percent of your betting budget. The more risk you take, the smaller your bets should be.
Value bets
The principle of value betting (value bets) is widespread among experienced sports betting professionals. They try to determine the probability of a correct bet themselves and then compare this probability with the odds of a betting provider. If there is now a large difference between the two ratings, the bookmaker’s odds appear to be set too high or too low.
There are many approaches how exactly the tipster calculates his subjective probability and from which difference to the odds he should place the bet. Value bets usually range in betting odds between 1.60 and 2.50 (betting odds from the betting provider) and exclude tips on clear favourites.
Want to know if a bet is a potentially profitable value bet? Then, based on all the information available to you, ask yourself how likely you think your bet will be. Set a percentage.
You can use this formula to help you decide: (odds x your probability in percent) / 100. If the result is greater than one, you should place the bet. If the value is below 1, it is better not to bet.
Kelly system
Betting with the Kelly system is aimed at the optimal size of the stake for sports betting. With the Kelly formula, advanced tipsters want to combine general money management and the subjective assessment of the probability of winning.
The Kelly formula is: betting budget x (your probability in percent x odds -1) / (odds -1) = your stake.
The result includes both your general betting budget and your subjective assessment of value betting. However, relatively high stakes can quickly come about in this way, which is why many tipsters weaken the Kelly formula and only actually stake half, a quarter or an eighth of the amount calculated in this way.